AWMS Blog

As you work to build a financial future for yourself and the ones you love, it is beneficial to have a perspective on the world around you and the outside factors that may impact how your wealth can grow and thrive in a global economy.

February was yet another interesting month for the U.S.  Unemployment was up a little to 3.9% (a very healthy employment market), a bit higher than January’s 3.7%, with the Fed’s inflation gauges coming around this may be just a great number.  Inflation continues to soften in the news cycle with the shift to when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start to lower interest rates.    Inflation notched up a little to 3.2% (not terrible) and off-peak numbers of 9.1% from June 2022 falling 64.8% from highs.  I am confident you already know that some of the inflation from 2022 is permanent with most commodity-based items coming down substantially from peaks. 

On the international front, recession (slowing of growth) continues to be a theme with bright spots of heightened economic activity here and there.  The Eurozone saw the Market PMI Composite at 49.2 (on the slow side but not terrible), Retail Sales SCA month over month up .10% (positive is good), GDP year over year for the 4th qtr. was up .1% (positive is good) (Source: FactSet economic calendar).  In Asia Pacific economies: Japan’s Real Household Consumption year over year for January was -2.1% (seems like their consumers are still a little nervous) and 4th qtr. GDP comes in at 1.2% year over year (growth is good). China’s Markit/Caixin Services PMI was at 52.5 (numbers above 50 are a good sign), CPI NSA year over year was at .7% for February (starting to see a little stability in prices, not bad). Australia’s 4th Qtr. GDP was 1.5% year of year (a growing economy is good) and the NAB Business Confidence fell in February to .26 (not a great sign) (Source: FactSet economic calendar).  As a result of U.S. companies deriving 40% +/- of earnings from outside this country and the current strength of the U.S. economy, I still feel investment in stocks will continue to favor the U.S. in the coming months with most markets outside the U.S. continuing to play catch up.      

The market (measured by the S&P 500 ETF, SPY) added a massive 5.22% +/- in February speeding up from January’s 1.59% +/- and hitting all-time highs not surpassed since 2022. I expect markets over the next month to take a break while hovering around all-time highs with downside ranging in the 1-5% range until earning season is upon us again in April. At AWMS, we still own equities/stocks for the same reasons we always have for their long-term growth and consistent dividend cash flow.  Although markets can be volatile at times, dividend and interest payments continue to pour in like Rhine Falls.

Please continue to make healthy decisions like washing your hands, getting plenty of sleep, eating balanced meals, staying hydrated, and taking a stroll if you feel like it.  Reach out to a friend or loved one and have a great conversation.

Until next time, be well and keep putting one foot in front of the other.  If you are not a client and would like to receive our newsletter or our monthly blog update, please use the contact tab on our website and drop us an email.

 Sincerely,

 Thaddeus Phelps, CEO/CIO

 This commentary on this website reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of an Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC employee, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC or performance returns of any Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data, or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Advance Wealth Management Service, LLC manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.